Are We Fatter Because We’re Eating More?
No, caloric consumption in the U.S. has not increased over the last 30 years (approximately 1995–2025). It rose steadily from the 1970s through the early 2000s before peaking and then declining slightly, with current levels lower than those in the mid-1990s.Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), analyzed by the USDA’s Economic Research Service and Agricultural Research Service, tracks average daily energy intake from food and beverages for the population aged 2 and older. These figures come from 24-hour dietary recalls and represent reported consumption (not food supply, which is higher due to waste).Key Data Points for Total Population (Aged 2+)
| Survey Period | Average Daily Calories (kcal) | Notes/Source |
|---|---|---|
| 1977–1978 | 1,807 | Baseline; low intake era. |
| 1988–1994 | ~2,170 (estimated for total pop; adults: 2,234) | Major increase post-1970s; aligns with rising obesity. |
| 1994–1996 | ~2,160 (estimated; adults: ~2,221 in 1999–2000) | Mid-1990s levels, during upward trend. |
| 2003–2004 | ~2,200 (peak; adults: 2,267) | Highest recorded; driven by processed foods and dining out. |
| 2015–2016 | 2,048 | Start of decline. |
| 2017–2018 | 2,093 | Slight rebound, but below peak. |
| 2021–2023 | 1,999 | Latest data; ~7% lower than mid-1990s estimates. |
Overall Trend Analysis
- 1970s–Early 2000s Increase: Intake rose ~15–25% overall (from ~1,800 kcal in 1977 to ~2,200 kcal by 2003), linked to more processed foods, larger portions, and eating away from home (e.g., fast food share grew from 6% to 16% of calories). This contributed to obesity rates doubling from ~15% (1980) to ~30% (2000).
- Post-2003 Decline/Stabilization: Intake fell ~5–10% by 2023, possibly due to public health campaigns, menu labeling, and shifts toward lower-calorie options (e.g., fewer sugary drinks). However, obesity rates continued rising to ~42% (2020), suggesting reduced physical activity played a larger role.
- Last 30 Years Specifically: From 2,160 kcal (mid-1990s) to 1,999 kcal (2023), a net decrease of ~160 kcal (7%). Fluctuations occurred (e.g., +45 kcal from 2015–2023), but no sustained rise.
Breakdowns
- By Gender (Adults, 2017–2018): Men ~2,500 kcal; women ~1,800 kcal. Trends mirror overall: both peaked early 2000s, then declined.
- By Age: Children (2–19) ~1,800–2,000 kcal (stable); adults (20+) ~2,100–2,200 kcal (bigger drop post-2000s).
- Sources of Change: Calories from added sugars and fats peaked ~2000, then fell; ultra-processed foods still provide ~55% of calories (2021–2023).
These trends highlight that while long-term gains in food access boosted intake historically, recent decades show moderation amid health efforts yet we’re still seeing an alarming trend in obesity.
Good stuff.
Thank you!